![]() ![]() Russia invaded Ukraine when gold was $1,900 and the U.S. "There are a series of important events that occurred in the low $1,900. On the downside, the first significant support for gold is the $1,900-$1,920 range. In the $3,600 scenario, Shiels described "the massive structural breakout in the XAUJPY, where prices extended 75% above a long term ceiling, is a preview of what 'could happen' in XAUUSD." government's federal debt (yearly correlation since 1971 is +0.91!), which is expected to almost double to 200% of GDP by 2050 (CBO) that puts the model implied gold price at $3500," Shiels said. "Gold is very elastic to the surges in the U.S. The $3,500 target would require a more extreme scenario, including massive global debt, surging inflation, and fiat currencies being reconsidered. "Gold roughly doubled from Lehman low to the 2011 peak of $1,921 within roughly three years as the Fed launched QE," Shiels explained. The $3,200 upside target would be gold doubling from this cycle's low of $1,600 an ounce. " surely not unreasonable if the Fed pivots as economic growth and/or something else (larger) in the financial or broader economy breaks forcing their hand," Shiels said in a note. ![]() It marks a 20 high.Īt the $2,200 level, gold would reach a bull market status, up 20% on the year. Shiels described the $2,070- $2,075 range as a double top that gold needs to cross for the rally to continue. "Typical low volatility, safe haven, reserve currency assets such as gold, usually do not gap into new territory unless there's conviction, even despite the liquidity shortcomings. "This has been a statement repricing (eerily similar to the 2020 & 2022 moves in size/pace) indicative of a macro regime shift," Shiels noted. In the last month, gold quickly blew past $1,900 and $2,000 levels and marked new record highs in many currencies, including the Australian dollar. "We know the story and the narrative of why it's been a respected bull trend since Nov 2022 (slower Fed, inflation, economic slowdown, banking/crisis of confidence, rotation of wealth, de-dollarization etc)," said MKS PAMP's head of metals strategy Nicky Shiels. Given the magnitude of the gold price rally this past month, there are several outcomes that investors need to be prepared for.Īnd as gold attempts to hold the $2,000 level, MKS PAMP identified key upside and downside gold price targets. Receive a comprehensive recap of the day's top stories directly to your inbox. Get all the essential market news and expert opinions in one place with our daily newsletter.
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